PDA

View Full Version : Figures don't lie, but...


Don
03-30-2007, 01:02 PM
I got back yesterday from meetings in Minnesota. On the flight to Minneapolis (the only city with a name that combines an American Indian and Greek word) I read USA Today, truly one of the worst "newspapers" in the world. [When it was first published I was given a free subscription and I cancelled within a few weeks. My reading shows that its same lack of depth remains. But that's not why I'm writing here.]

There was a full-page ad on page 5A. The very large headline read, "Lipitor reduces risk of heart attach by 36%*"

Now, as I previously was a graphic designer, I'm not going to go into the absolutely horrible design of the headline that featured three fonts, different kerning and tracking on each line (and within each line). I was just interested in the asterisk.

When you go to the small print to explain the asterisk it says, "That means in a large clinical study, 3% of patients taking a sugar pill or placebo had a heart attack compared to 2% of patients taking Lipitor."

Oi vey! Where to begin on this ad?

First, the claim of 36% cherry-picks the data. If you look at the entire number of subjects, the difference is just 1%. What the advertisers illegitimately did what is pull out only the number of people who had heart attacks and ignored all of the other people in the test. That's simply unethical.

Further, what is meant by a "large clinical study?" Are we talking 10,000 subjects or 100? If it's only a few hundred subjects (and no information is given about the risk factors for heart attack that the subjects had),the actual difference of 1% is not scientifically significant.

This ad is outright deceptive.

By that's not all. Just because out of 100 people, one less person who takes Lipitor gets a heart attack than those who take placebos does not mean that Lipitor was responsible for that 1% (not 36%) reduction. To factually make that claim you would have to show the science that shows how Lipitor specifically and directly prevented the heart attack. No such proof is offered. In fact, many scientists say that there is no evidence to show a direct relationship between high cholesterol (which is treated by Lipitor) and heart attack. Rather, they say that the cause is inflamation of the arteries.

The original tests that showed drugs such as Lipitor reduce cholesterol featured a combination of the drug with Coenzyme Q10. Lipitor does not include CoQ10. That's like testing one set of drugs to see how it works and then selling a different formulation.

Finally, it has a recommendation by Dr Robert Jarvik, "Inventor of the Jarvik Artificial Heart." This is false information. Dr. Jarvik did not invent the artificial heart. It was actually invented by Paul Winchell (the ventriloquist who worked with figures Jerry Mahoney and Knucklehead Smiff and was later the voice for the Disney version of Tigger). Winchell was a true renaissance man. He was a hypnotist and acupuncturist. He wrote on theology. He received 30 patents. One was for the artificial heart which he invented in 1963. He donated it to the University of Utah. One of the doctors who researched it was Dr. Jarvik who implanted a version of into a patient 20 years later.

Figures don't lie, but liars do figures. And advertisers are some of the biggest liars around.

Docresults
03-30-2007, 01:28 PM
Figures don't lie, but...

my eyes can when I'm drunk, cause I know I went to bed with a 2 and I woke up with a 10.

To Your Best,
Doc


P.S. Great post Don, thanks for the spotlight on statistics.

Connie
03-30-2007, 01:59 PM
I saw a television commercial recently featuring Dr. Jarvik hyping some drug. It must have been this one. :p Thanks for the scoop on Paul Winchell, very interesting!--I only ever knew him as a ventriloquist! "Dr Robert Jarvik, "Inventor of the Jarvik Artificial Heart."" Perhaps it's intentionally misleading, but that doesn't claim he invented THE artificial heart, it's claiming he invented something called "the Jarvik Artificial Heart."

Poodle
03-30-2007, 02:19 PM
Common side effects: headache, constipation, diarrhea, gas, stomach pains, rash, muscle & joint pain. (Reads as if they have managed to come up with a drug to give a person IBS).

Severe problems: Muscle problems, liver problems, nausea and vomiting.

Who even knows if the drug does what is intended as the patient is put on a low fat diet at the same time.

Seldom watch TV but I have seen the commercial for the 2 in 1 punch. No thanks! Would prefer hypnosis. No unwanted side effects except feeling wonderful and aggrivating my MD which is a lot of fun. He's just tooooo easy.

Don
03-30-2007, 03:06 PM
Most people don't know about Winchell and his contributions.

He worked as a medical hypnotist at the Gibbs Institute in Hollywood, CA. He received an honorary doctorate in science from the National Christian University for his invention of the artificial heart.

He also invented the disposable razor. Unfortunately, everyone told him that nobody would buy something and later throw it away and he didn't go further. The market for disposable razors, today, is enormous.

Here are some of his other inventions:
A flameless cigarette lighter
An illuminated ballpoint pen
A freezer interruption indicator (to show if their food had gone bad during electrical interruptions)
Gloves heated by a battery
A battery lighted key case
A portable blood plasma defroster
A sectional garment for hypothermia
An aluminum electrical generator
Novelty phonograph records
A reversible alphabet that could be seen normally when shown in a mirror
An invisible garter belt
A retractable fountain pen

Poodle
04-11-2007, 08:04 PM
I saw the commercial Connie was referring to with Dr. Jarvis. He is claiming it is the "Jarvis Artificial Heart" while telling us all the wonders of Lipitor. The amazing thing is how many people are gonna believe it. 1. He's a medical professional so he knows. 2. He is a heart specialist so he really knows. Mind goes: Ohh, I have to call my Dr. and get some of this wonderful stuff because I don't want the consequences. They really should ban medication commercials IMHO. Most people would probably be better off.

TaffyE
04-11-2007, 08:23 PM
I don't know who first said it, but it's so true.

"There's lies, damn lies, and statistics" :)

rd3500
04-12-2007, 12:11 PM
Nice post and figures Don.

What's even more amazing to me is that Lipitor is a prescription drug and it should not be advertised at all. If a drug needs a prescription, to me that means the doctor needs to evaluate if it is appropriate, not the consumer.

Instead, consumers are programmed through false advertising to ask for something they don't really need and the doctors are trained by pharmaceuticals companies in prescribing medications. Which by the way, increases the cost of health insurances for everybody especially given the prices of drugs in the US. If you watch the news at 6:30 half of the ads are for drugs which means they can pay for prime time no problem. In most countries in Europe, it is simply illegal to advertise prescriptions drugs.

You should go to the doctor with high cholesterol and he should figure out what's best for you. You should not go to the doctor asking for Lipitor.

rd

Stoic
04-12-2007, 05:11 PM
Nice, thanks for sharing Don.

53% of statistics are obviously false on first glance, the remaining 47% are false after careful consideration. Including this one...

If I ever start a business I'll advertise:
--- According to recent 3 month study, 130% of my clients that received treatment lived past 154 years of age, and the rest died instantly* ---


*the statistics above are made up to fool you, if you are not fooled yet, please read again.